So after my post on the prevalence of gender-variance, I thought it would be interesting to calculate actual numbers of transsexual and transgender people, just to get an idea of how big a population (constituency? ~_^) we’re talking about here.

Considering the contention around who actually has the right numbers though, I decided to calculate population separately based on each individual investigation or report, listing them in descending order with the oldest report [Tsoi88] at the top, down to [Reed08], the most recent, at the bottom. I know it’s not ideal, but at least it does help to give an indication of what various authorities are saying the populations are. Unfortunately it’s still pretty-much up to each of us to decide for ourselves who we’re gonna listen to. At least until all the big brains and official types can agree.

Before getting started, just a recap of the assumptions and rules I’m using in my calculations:

  1. Overall population statistics are assumed to be a 50% split between assigned male and assigned female.
  2. Adult population aged 18-60 is estimated at two thirds of total population, 67%.
  3. You’ll notice that most of these studies focus exclusively on Male-to-Female (MtF) transsexual people, specifically post-op. This is done mainly because it’s easy – you can point to a definite, irreversible change and obtain statistical data from surgeons fairly easily. Obviously this precludes gender-variant people who can’t have surgery due to financial or health restrictions, or who do not entirely identify as transsexual.
  4. Reliable statistics for the Female-to-Male (FtM) population are much harder to come by as phalloplasty is a much more expensive, dangerous and generally unsuccessful procedure than vaginoplasty. Consequently, many transmen opt not to have surgery, and so never become part of a fairly easily counted population. Historically the ratio has been about one FtM individual for every 2.5 MtF people. Where there’s no data I’ve used this ratio to extrapolate numbers for comparison, though some more recent studies are indicating a higher ratio.
  5. These statistics tend to assume that the majority of the population will have access to information about transsexuality as well as the means to medically transition, since they are based on research in developed countries such as the Netherlands and the United States. The reality in less developed countries is unlikely to correspond to these models. Populations are more likely to be ignorant of the realities or even existence of gender variance, not to mention have little chances of ever having the resources to transition.

So all calculations are for adult populations between the ages of 18 and 60 only, with assigned male and assigned female split exactly 50-50. All population statistics are latest census or estimated figures as per Wikipedia.

I’ve done two sets of calculations, the first based on the lowest prevalence statistics quoted in each respective report, which represents people seeking to transition or already having done so, and where available, a second set based on upper estimates as being representative of total populations of all gender-variant people.


Overview

Tsoi88
Bakker93
Wilson99
Conway01
Winter02
Conway07
Reed08


Sheet 1: Tsoi88

[Tsoi88]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 5,506 1,924 no data no data
European Union 499,673,300 57,434 20,067 no data no data
United Kingdom 60,975,000 7,009 2,449 no data no data
Canada 33,558,000 3,857 1,348 no data no data
United States 305,831,000 35,153 12,282 no data no data
Australia 21,585,178 2,481 867 no data no data
China 1,321,851,888 151,937 53,086 no data no data
India 1,147,995,904 131,954 46,104 no data no data
The World 6,677,602,292 767,540 268,177 no data no data
Ratio to Total Population : 2,900 8,300


Sheet 2: Bakker93

[Bakker93]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 1,342 525 no data no data
European Union 499,673,300 13,996 5,479 no data no data
United Kingdom 60,975,000 1,708 669 no data no data
Canada 33,558,000 940 368 no data no data
United States 305,831,000 8,567 3,353 no data no data
Australia 21,585,178 605 237 no data no data
China 1,321,851,888 37,027 14,494 no data no data
India 1,147,995,904 32,157 12,588 no data no data
The World 6,677,602,292 187,048 73,219 no data no data
Ratio to Total Population : 11,900 30,400


Sheet 3: Wilson99

[Wilson99]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 2,090 522 no data no data
European Union 499,673,300 21,798 5,444 no data no data
United Kingdom 60,975,000 2,660 664 no data no data
Canada 33,558,000 1,464 366 no data no data
United States 305,831,000 13,342 3,332 no data no data
Australia 21,585,178 942 235 no data no data
China 1,321,851,888 57,665 14,403 no data no data
India 1,147,995,904 50,081 12,509 no data no data
The World 6,677,602,292 291,306 72,760 no data no data
Ratio to Total Population : 7,641 30,592


Sheet 4: Conway01

[Conway01]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 6,387 2,555 31,933 12,773
European Union 499,673,300 66,623 26,649 333,116 133,246
United Kingdom 60,975,000 8,130 3,252 40,650 16,260
Canada 33,558,000 4,474 1,790 22,372 8,949
United States 305,831,000 40,777 16,311 203,887 81,555
Australia 21,585,178 2,878 1,151 14,390 5,756
China 1,321,851,888 176,247 70,499 881,235 352,494
India 1,147,995,904 153,066 61,226 765,331 306,132
The World 6,677,602,292 890,347 356,139 4,451,735 1,780,694
Ratio to Total Population : 2,500 6,250 500 1,250


Sheet 5: Winter02

[Winter02]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 no data no data 95,609 38,244
European Union 499,673,300 no data no data 997,352 398,941
United Kingdom 60,975,000 no data no data 121,707 48,683
Canada 33,558,000 no data no data 66,982 26,793
United States 305,831,000 no data no data 610,441 244,176
Australia 21,585,178 no data no data 43,084 17,234
China 1,321,851,888 no data no data 2,638,427 1,055,371
India 1,147,995,904 no data no data 2,291,409 916,564
The World 6,677,602,292 no data no data 13,328,547 5,331,419
Ratio to Total Population : 167 418


Sheet 6: Conway07

[Conway07]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 10,644 4,258 31,933 12,773
European Union 499,673,300 111,039 44,415 333,116 133,246
United Kingdom 60,975,000 13,550 5,420 40,650 16,260
Canada 33,558,000 7,457 2,983 22,372 8,949
United States 305,831,000 67,962 27,185 203,887 81,555
Australia 21,585,178 4,797 1,919 14,390 5,756
China 1,321,851,888 293,745 117,498 881,235 352,494
India 1,147,995,904 255,110 102,044 765,331 306,132
The World 6,677,602,292 1,483,912 593,565 4,451,735 1,780,694
Ratio to Total Population : 1,500 3,750 500 1,250


Sheet 7: Reed08

[Reed93]
Region Total population Transitioning/Transitioned Population Estimated Gender-Variant Population
MtF FtM Male-bodied Female-bodied
South Africa 47,900,000 5,365 1,341 153,526 38,381
European Union 499,673,300 55,967 13,992 1,601,517 400,379
United Kingdom 60,975,000 6,830 1,707 195,433 48,858
Canada 33,558,000 3,759 940 107,558 26,889
United States 305,831,000 34,255 8,564 980,228 245,057
Australia 21,585,178 2,418 604 69,183 17,296
China 1,321,851,888 148,057 37,014 4,236,705 1,059,176
India 1,147,995,904 128,584 32,146 3,679,474 919,869
The World 6,677,602,292 747,939 186,985 21,402,571 5,350,643
Ratio to Total Population : 2,976 11,904 104 416

I use OpenOffice, an Open-Source alternative to MS Office and other packages. Try it, it’s as good as other packages any day of the week, and you can download it for free! ^_^

Mina

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