gender-variant populations

So after my post on the prevalence of gender-variance, I thought it would be interesting to calculate actual numbers of transsexual and transgender people, just to get an idea of how big a population (constituency? ~_^) we’re talking about here.

Considering the contention around who actually has the right numbers though, I decided to calculate population separately based on each individual investigation or report, listing them in descending order with the oldest report [Tsoi88] at the top, down to [Reed08], the most recent, at the bottom. I know it’s not ideal, but at least it does help to give an indication of what various authorities are saying the populations are. Unfortunately it’s still pretty-much up to each of us to decide for ourselves who we’re gonna listen to. At least until all the big brains and official types can agree.

Before getting started, just a recap of the assumptions and rules I’m using in my calculations:

1. Overall population statistics are assumed to be a 50% split between assigned male and assigned female.
2. Adult population aged 18-60 is estimated at two thirds of total population, 67%.
3. You’ll notice that most of these studies focus exclusively on Male-to-Female (MtF) transsexual people, specifically post-op. This is done mainly because it’s easy – you can point to a definite, irreversible change and obtain statistical data from surgeons fairly easily. Obviously this precludes gender-variant people who can’t have surgery due to financial or health restrictions, or who do not entirely identify as transsexual.
4. Reliable statistics for the Female-to-Male (FtM) population are much harder to come by as phalloplasty is a much more expensive, dangerous and generally unsuccessful procedure than vaginoplasty. Consequently, many transmen opt not to have surgery, and so never become part of a fairly easily counted population. Historically the ratio has been about one FtM individual for every 2.5 MtF people. Where there’s no data I’ve used this ratio to extrapolate numbers for comparison, though some more recent studies are indicating a higher ratio.
5. These statistics tend to assume that the majority of the population will have access to information about transsexuality as well as the means to medically transition, since they are based on research in developed countries such as the Netherlands and the United States. The reality in less developed countries is unlikely to correspond to these models. Populations are more likely to be ignorant of the realities or even existence of gender variance, not to mention have little chances of ever having the resources to transition.

So all calculations are for adult populations between the ages of 18 and 60 only, with assigned male and assigned female split exactly 50-50. All population statistics are latest census or estimated figures as per Wikipedia.

I’ve done two sets of calculations, the first based on the lowest prevalence statistics quoted in each respective report, which represents people seeking to transition or already having done so, and where available, a second set based on upper estimates as being representative of total populations of all gender-variant people.

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Overview

Tsoi88
Bakker93
Wilson99
Conway01
Winter02
Conway07
Reed08

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Sheet 1: Tsoi88

[Tsoi88]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		5,506	1,924		no data	no data
European Union		499,673,300		57,434	20,067		no data	no data
United Kingdom		60,975,000		7,009	2,449		no data	no data
Canada		33,558,000		3,857	1,348		no data	no data
United States		305,831,000		35,153	12,282		no data	no data
Australia		21,585,178		2,481	867		no data	no data
China		1,321,851,888		151,937	53,086		no data	no data
India		1,147,995,904		131,954	46,104		no data	no data
The World		6,677,602,292		767,540	268,177		no data	no data
Ratio to Total Population :				2,900	8,300

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Sheet 2: Bakker93

[Bakker93]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		1,342	525		no data	no data
European Union		499,673,300		13,996	5,479		no data	no data
United Kingdom		60,975,000		1,708	669		no data	no data
Canada		33,558,000		940	368		no data	no data
United States		305,831,000		8,567	3,353		no data	no data
Australia		21,585,178		605	237		no data	no data
China		1,321,851,888		37,027	14,494		no data	no data
India		1,147,995,904		32,157	12,588		no data	no data
The World		6,677,602,292		187,048	73,219		no data	no data
Ratio to Total Population :				11,900	30,400

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Sheet 3: Wilson99

[Wilson99]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		2,090	522		no data	no data
European Union		499,673,300		21,798	5,444		no data	no data
United Kingdom		60,975,000		2,660	664		no data	no data
Canada		33,558,000		1,464	366		no data	no data
United States		305,831,000		13,342	3,332		no data	no data
Australia		21,585,178		942	235		no data	no data
China		1,321,851,888		57,665	14,403		no data	no data
India		1,147,995,904		50,081	12,509		no data	no data
The World		6,677,602,292		291,306	72,760		no data	no data
Ratio to Total Population :				7,641	30,592

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Sheet 4: Conway01

[Conway01]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		6,387	2,555		31,933	12,773
European Union		499,673,300		66,623	26,649		333,116	133,246
United Kingdom		60,975,000		8,130	3,252		40,650	16,260
Canada		33,558,000		4,474	1,790		22,372	8,949
United States		305,831,000		40,777	16,311		203,887	81,555
Australia		21,585,178		2,878	1,151		14,390	5,756
China		1,321,851,888		176,247	70,499		881,235	352,494
India		1,147,995,904		153,066	61,226		765,331	306,132
The World		6,677,602,292		890,347	356,139		4,451,735	1,780,694
Ratio to Total Population :				2,500	6,250		500	1,250

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Sheet 5: Winter02

[Winter02]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		no data	no data		95,609	38,244
European Union		499,673,300		no data	no data		997,352	398,941
United Kingdom		60,975,000		no data	no data		121,707	48,683
Canada		33,558,000		no data	no data		66,982	26,793
United States		305,831,000		no data	no data		610,441	244,176
Australia		21,585,178		no data	no data		43,084	17,234
China		1,321,851,888		no data	no data		2,638,427	1,055,371
India		1,147,995,904		no data	no data		2,291,409	916,564
The World		6,677,602,292		no data	no data		13,328,547	5,331,419
Ratio to Total Population :							167	418

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Sheet 6: Conway07

[Conway07]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		10,644	4,258		31,933	12,773
European Union		499,673,300		111,039	44,415		333,116	133,246
United Kingdom		60,975,000		13,550	5,420		40,650	16,260
Canada		33,558,000		7,457	2,983		22,372	8,949
United States		305,831,000		67,962	27,185		203,887	81,555
Australia		21,585,178		4,797	1,919		14,390	5,756
China		1,321,851,888		293,745	117,498		881,235	352,494
India		1,147,995,904		255,110	102,044		765,331	306,132
The World		6,677,602,292		1,483,912	593,565		4,451,735	1,780,694
Ratio to Total Population :				1,500	3,750		500	1,250

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Sheet 7: Reed08

[Reed93]
Region		Total population		Transitioning/Transitioned Population			Estimated Gender-Variant Population
				MtF	FtM		Male-bodied	Female-bodied
South Africa		47,900,000		5,365	1,341		153,526	38,381
European Union		499,673,300		55,967	13,992		1,601,517	400,379
United Kingdom		60,975,000		6,830	1,707		195,433	48,858
Canada		33,558,000		3,759	940		107,558	26,889
United States		305,831,000		34,255	8,564		980,228	245,057
Australia		21,585,178		2,418	604		69,183	17,296
China		1,321,851,888		148,057	37,014		4,236,705	1,059,176
India		1,147,995,904		128,584	32,146		3,679,474	919,869
The World		6,677,602,292		747,939	186,985		21,402,571	5,350,643
Ratio to Total Population :				2,976	11,904		104	416

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Mina